TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hillcrest | Bolivar |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.1 | 29.8 |
| PA / GAME | 31.4 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.0 | +12.0 |
| SOS | +2.0 | -1.0 |
| POWER | -6.3 | +11.7 |
BOLIVAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Bolivar finished the job, as Hillcrest and Bolivar finished 7-45. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-32 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 10.6-point projection. That produced a 27.4-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Hillcrest and 12.5 for Bolivar.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOLIVAR
MOFO leans toward Bolivar because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.6-point margin, with Bolivar carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Bolivar enters at 29.8 points per game compared with 25.1 for Hillcrest. Bolivar also allows 8.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.0 for Bolivar and +2.0 for Hillcrest. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Bolivar owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hillcrest has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.