TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Winnetonka | Belton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.8 | 18.0 |
| PA / GAME | 34.0 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.0 | -18.7 |
| SOS | +3.9 | +17.1 |
| POWER | -7.6 | -12.7 |
BELTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Belton finished the job, as Winnetonka and Belton finished 34-46. MOFO's pick of Winnetonka missed; the model had projected a 28-26 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 14.8-point margin error, with score errors of 5.5 for Winnetonka and 20.3 for Belton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINNETONKA
MOFO leans toward Winnetonka because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with Winnetonka carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Winnetonka enters at 25.8 points per game compared with 18.0 for Belton. Belton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.9 for Winnetonka and +17.1 for Belton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Winnetonka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Belton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.