TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Festus | Windsor (Imperial) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.5 | 34.9 |
| PA / GAME | 26.2 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.2 | +10.6 |
| SOS | -7.6 | -4.9 |
| POWER | -2.4 | +8.9 |
FESTUS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Festus finished the job, as Festus and Windsor (Imperial) finished 47-6. MOFO's pick of Windsor (Imperial) missed; the model had projected a 28-32 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 4.1-point projection. That produced a 45.1-point margin error, with score errors of 19.2 for Festus and 25.9 for Windsor (Imperial).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINDSOR (IMPERIAL)
MOFO leans toward Windsor (Imperial) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.1-point margin, with Windsor (Imperial) carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Windsor (Imperial) enters at 34.9 points per game compared with 27.5 for Festus. Festus's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.9 for Windsor (Imperial) and -7.6 for Festus. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Windsor (Imperial) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Windsor (Imperial) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.