TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Harrisburg | Westran |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 18.4 | 24.3 |
| PA / GAME | 28.6 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.9 | -4.4 |
| SOS | +3.6 | -5.2 |
| POWER | -16.6 | -6.2 |
WESTRAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Westran finished the job, as Harrisburg and Westran finished 6-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-27 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 5.5-point projection. That produced a 28.5-point margin error, with score errors of 16.0 for Harrisburg and 12.5 for Westran.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WESTRAN
MOFO leans toward Westran because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.5-point margin, with Westran carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Westran enters at 24.3 points per game compared with 18.4 for Harrisburg. Westran also allows 1.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.2 for Westran and +3.6 for Harrisburg. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Westran owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Harrisburg has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.