TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Francis Borgia | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 34.3 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 18.5 | 25.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +25.5 | -4.6 |
| SOS | -14.1 | +2.9 |
| POWER | +20.6 | -3.6 |
ST. FRANCIS BORGIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Francis Borgia finished the job, as St. Francis Borgia and Washington finished 27-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-18 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 14.1-point projection. That produced a 8.1-point margin error, with score errors of 5.2 for St. Francis Borgia and 2.9 for Washington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. FRANCIS BORGIA
MOFO leans toward St. Francis Borgia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.1-point margin, with St. Francis Borgia carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Francis Borgia enters at 34.3 points per game compared with 22.5 for Washington. St. Francis Borgia also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.1 for St. Francis Borgia and +2.9 for Washington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Francis Borgia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Washington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.