TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Knob Noster with Leeton | Warsaw |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 15.5 | 31.2 |
| PA / GAME | 38.5 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | -1.7 |
| SOS | +0.5 | +6.4 |
| POWER | -34.8 | +0.6 |
WARSAW WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warsaw finished the job, as Knob Noster with Leeton and Warsaw finished 14-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-39 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 21.2-point projection. That produced a 16.8-point margin error, with score errors of 3.7 for Knob Noster with Leeton and 13.1 for Warsaw.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARSAW
MOFO leans toward Warsaw because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.2-point margin, with Warsaw carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warsaw enters at 31.2 points per game compared with 15.5 for Knob Noster with Leeton. Warsaw also allows 10.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.4 for Warsaw and +0.5 for Knob Noster with Leeton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Warsaw owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warsaw has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.