TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Dominic | Warrenton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.3 | 25.9 |
| PA / GAME | 24.8 | 20.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.0 | +11.5 |
| SOS | -0.9 | -10.1 |
| POWER | -2.3 | +8.0 |
ST. DOMINIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Dominic finished the job, as St. Dominic and Warrenton finished 31-14. MOFO's pick of Warrenton missed; the model had projected a 22-26 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 4.2-point projection. That produced a 21.2-point margin error, with score errors of 8.8 for St. Dominic and 12.3 for Warrenton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARRENTON
MOFO leans toward Warrenton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.2-point margin, with Warrenton carrying a 64% win probability.
St. Dominic actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Warrenton also allows 4.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.1 for Warrenton and -0.9 for St. Dominic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Dominic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Dominic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.