TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran St. Charles | Vianney |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 14.6 | 29.4 |
| PA / GAME | 41.7 | 31.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -32.6 | -3.9 |
| SOS | +12.0 | +4.0 |
| POWER | -28.4 | -2.5 |
VIANNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Vianney finished the job, as Lutheran St. Charles and Vianney finished 6-78. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-38 final.
The actual margin was 72 points versus MOFO's 17.8-point projection. That produced a 54.2-point margin error, with score errors of 14.5 for Lutheran St. Charles and 39.7 for Vianney.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VIANNEY
MOFO leans toward Vianney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.8-point margin, with Vianney carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Vianney enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 14.6 for Lutheran St. Charles. Vianney also allows 9.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.0 for Vianney and +12.0 for Lutheran St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Vianney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.