TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lexington | Versailles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 17.9 | 18.2 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 29.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.1 | -10.2 |
| SOS | +2.1 | +7.1 |
| POWER | -16.4 | -7.7 |
VERSAILLES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Versailles finished the job, as Lexington and Versailles finished 12-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-25 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 2.5-point projection. That produced a 17.5-point margin error, with score errors of 10.4 for Lexington and 7.1 for Versailles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VERSAILLES
MOFO leans toward Versailles because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.5-point margin, with Versailles carrying a 58% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Versailles enters at 18.2 points per game compared with 17.9 for Lexington. Versailles also allows 0.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.1 for Versailles and +2.1 for Lexington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Versailles owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Versailles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.