TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Truman | Van Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 21.4 |
| PA / GAME | 44.0 | 28.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -31.6 | -14.4 |
| SOS | +14.8 | -0.5 |
| POWER | -26.4 | -14.6 |
VAN HORN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Van Horn finished the job, as Truman and Van Horn finished 6-50. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-34 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 12.6-point projection. That produced a 31.4-point margin error, with score errors of 15.2 for Truman and 16.3 for Van Horn.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VAN HORN
MOFO leans toward Van Horn because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.6-point margin, with Van Horn carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Van Horn enters at 21.4 points per game compared with 16.2 for Truman. Van Horn also allows 15.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for Van Horn and +14.8 for Truman. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Van Horn owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Truman has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.