TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Park Hills) | Valle Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 38.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.3 | 18.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.7 | +31.5 |
| SOS | -0.3 | -3.3 |
| POWER | -2.8 | +30.3 |
VALLE CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Valle Catholic finished the job, as Central (Park Hills) and Valle Catholic finished 7-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-35 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 17.6-point projection. That produced a 31.4-point margin error, with score errors of 10.2 for Central (Park Hills) and 21.3 for Valle Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VALLE CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Valle Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.6-point margin, with Valle Catholic carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Valle Catholic enters at 38.0 points per game compared with 23.0 for Central (Park Hills). Valle Catholic also allows 5.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.3 for Valle Catholic and -0.3 for Central (Park Hills). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Valle Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Park Hills) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.