FATHER TOLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Father Tolton finished the job, as Father Tolton and University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman finished 49-26. MOFO's pick of University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman missed; the model had projected a 25-27 final.

The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 25.2-point margin error, with score errors of 24.4 for Father Tolton and 0.9 for University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNIVERSITY ACADEMY CHARTER WITH EWING MARION KAUFFMAN

MOFO leans toward University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman carrying a 57% win probability.

Father Tolton actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman also allows 6.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -5.0 for University Academy Charter with Ewing Marion Kauffman and -3.9 for Father Tolton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.