TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hannibal | Troy Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.3 | 33.1 |
| PA / GAME | 27.9 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.3 | +11.7 |
| SOS | +8.1 | -3.1 |
| POWER | +1.6 | +10.6 |
TROY BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Troy Buchanan finished the job, as Hannibal and Troy Buchanan finished 6-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-31 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 4.6-point projection. That produced a 24.4-point margin error, with score errors of 20.7 for Hannibal and 3.7 for Troy Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TROY BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Troy Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.6-point margin, with Troy Buchanan carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Troy Buchanan enters at 33.1 points per game compared with 30.3 for Hannibal. Troy Buchanan also allows 3.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.1 for Troy Buchanan and +8.1 for Hannibal. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Troy Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hannibal has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.