TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marceline | Trenton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.1 | 19.6 |
| PA / GAME | 29.3 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.6 | -14.9 |
| SOS | +8.4 | +0.5 |
| POWER | -13.6 | -14.7 |
MARCELINE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marceline finished the job, as Marceline and Trenton finished 53-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-24 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 25.4-point margin error, with score errors of 28.2 for Marceline and 2.8 for Trenton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARCELINE
MOFO leans toward Marceline because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Marceline carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Marceline enters at 21.1 points per game compared with 19.6 for Trenton. Trenton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.4 for Marceline and +0.5 for Trenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marceline owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marceline has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.