TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberty (Wentzville) | Timberland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.9 | 31.6 |
| PA / GAME | 23.4 | 22.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.3 | +8.8 |
| SOS | +5.2 | -4.8 |
| POWER | -2.4 | +7.1 |
TIMBERLAND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Timberland finished the job, as Liberty (Wentzville) and Timberland finished 35-41. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-28 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 0.3-point margin error, with score errors of 13.0 for Liberty (Wentzville) and 12.7 for Timberland.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIMBERLAND
MOFO leans toward Timberland because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Timberland carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Timberland enters at 31.6 points per game compared with 22.9 for Liberty (Wentzville). Timberland also allows 0.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Timberland and +5.2 for Liberty (Wentzville). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Timberland owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Liberty (Wentzville) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.