TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Slater | Sweet Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.3 | 38.6 |
| PA / GAME | 34.6 | 37.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -15.9 | +4.2 |
| SOS | +6.6 | +1.6 |
| POWER | -13.6 | +4.8 |
SWEET SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sweet Springs finished the job, as Slater and Sweet Springs finished 38-60. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-39 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 9.7-point projection. That produced a 12.3-point margin error, with score errors of 9.1 for Slater and 21.4 for Sweet Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SWEET SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Sweet Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.7-point margin, with Sweet Springs carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sweet Springs enters at 38.6 points per game compared with 24.3 for Slater. Slater's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.6 for Sweet Springs and +6.6 for Slater. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sweet Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Slater has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.