TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. James | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 25.9 |
| PA / GAME | 22.0 | 30.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +7.6 | -1.9 |
| SOS | +4.3 | +0.1 |
| POWER | +9.1 | -1.8 |
SULLIVAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sullivan finished the job, as St. James and Sullivan finished 0-41. MOFO's pick of St. James missed; the model had projected a 29-23 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 47.6-point margin error, with score errors of 29.3 for St. James and 18.4 for Sullivan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. JAMES
MOFO leans toward St. James because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with St. James carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. James enters at 25.9 points per game compared with 25.9 for Sullivan. St. James also allows 8.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.3 for St. James and +0.1 for Sullivan. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. James owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. James has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.