TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Buffalo | Strafford |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 36.5 | 19.2 |
| PA / GAME | 27.7 | 27.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.3 | -11.1 |
| SOS | -13.7 | +1.8 |
| POWER | +12.5 | -10.5 |
STRAFFORD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Strafford finished the job, as Buffalo and Strafford finished 22-29. MOFO's pick of Buffalo missed; the model had projected a 34-21 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 13.0-point projection. That produced a 20.0-point margin error, with score errors of 12.2 for Buffalo and 7.8 for Strafford.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BUFFALO
MOFO leans toward Buffalo because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.0-point margin, with Buffalo carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Buffalo enters at 36.5 points per game compared with 19.2 for Strafford. Strafford's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.7 for Buffalo and +1.8 for Strafford. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Buffalo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Strafford has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.