TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Priory | St. Pius X (Festus) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.5 | 33.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.7 | 24.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.6 | +8.4 |
| SOS | +1.1 | -3.5 |
| POWER | -11.2 | +7.2 |
ST. PIUS X (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Festus) finished the job, as Priory and St. Pius X (Festus) finished 0-88. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-36 final.
The actual margin was 88 points versus MOFO's 12.7-point projection. That produced a 75.3-point margin error, with score errors of 22.9 for Priory and 52.4 for St. Pius X (Festus).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.7-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 33.6 points per game compared with 25.5 for Priory. St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 9.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.5 for St. Pius X (Festus) and +1.1 for Priory. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Pius X (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Priory has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.