ST. MARY'S SOUTH SIDE WRITES THE FINAL WORD

St. Mary's South Side finished the job, as Cahokia (Ill.) and St. Mary's South Side finished 22-25. MOFO's pick of Cahokia (Ill.) missed; the model had projected a 28-22 final.

The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 9.3-point margin error, with score errors of 5.9 for Cahokia (Ill.) and 3.4 for St. Mary's South Side.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAHOKIA (ILL.)

MOFO leans toward Cahokia (Ill.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Cahokia (Ill.) carrying a 70% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Cahokia (Ill.) enters at 27.3 points per game compared with 22.0 for St. Mary's South Side. Cahokia (Ill.) also allows 2.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Cahokia (Ill.) and +7.7 for St. Mary's South Side. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.