TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stanberry | St. Joseph Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 44.9 | 33.6 |
| PA / GAME | 40.0 | 35.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.1 | -1.7 |
| SOS | -9.9 | +2.1 |
| POWER | +11.6 | -1.0 |
STANBERRY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stanberry finished the job, as Stanberry and St. Joseph Christian finished 62-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 42-36 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 5.9-point projection. That produced a 24.1-point margin error, with score errors of 20.5 for Stanberry and 3.6 for St. Joseph Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STANBERRY
MOFO leans toward Stanberry because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.9-point margin, with Stanberry carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stanberry enters at 44.9 points per game compared with 33.6 for St. Joseph Christian. St. Joseph Christian's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.9 for Stanberry and +2.1 for St. Joseph Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Stanberry owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Joseph Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.