TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pacific | St. Clair |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.2 | 25.7 |
| PA / GAME | 32.7 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.6 | +1.7 |
| SOS | +12.8 | +10.3 |
| POWER | -14.1 | +5.3 |
ST. CLAIR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Clair finished the job, as Pacific and St. Clair finished 28-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-31 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 2.8-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Pacific and 3.7 for St. Clair.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CLAIR
MOFO leans toward St. Clair because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with St. Clair carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Clair enters at 25.7 points per game compared with 23.2 for Pacific. St. Clair also allows 8.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +10.3 for St. Clair and +12.8 for Pacific. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Clair owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pacific has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.