TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Reeds Spring | Springfield Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.5 | 33.3 |
| PA / GAME | 29.4 | 26.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.1 | +12.8 |
| SOS | +2.5 | -13.1 |
| POWER | -16.3 | +8.2 |
SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Springfield Catholic finished the job, as Reeds Spring and Springfield Catholic finished 0-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-34 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 14.3-point projection. That produced a 27.7-point margin error, with score errors of 19.5 for Reeds Spring and 8.2 for Springfield Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Springfield Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.3-point margin, with Springfield Catholic carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Springfield Catholic enters at 33.3 points per game compared with 17.5 for Reeds Spring. Springfield Catholic also allows 3.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.1 for Springfield Catholic and +2.5 for Reeds Spring. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Springfield Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Reeds Spring has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.