TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Macon | South Shelby |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 25.3 |
| PA / GAME | 26.4 | 22.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.8 | +9.0 |
| SOS | +1.6 | -9.5 |
| POWER | -2.2 | +5.7 |
MACON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Macon finished the job, as Macon and South Shelby finished 42-0. MOFO's pick of South Shelby missed; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 2.9-point projection. That produced a 44.9-point margin error, with score errors of 18.4 for Macon and 26.5 for South Shelby.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH SHELBY
MOFO leans toward South Shelby because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.9-point margin, with South Shelby carrying a 60% win probability.
Macon actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. South Shelby also allows 3.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.5 for South Shelby and +1.6 for Macon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Macon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Macon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.