TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mound City | South Holt |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 34.7 | 30.7 |
| PA / GAME | 28.5 | 46.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.3 | -22.9 |
| SOS | -10.1 | +14.1 |
| POWER | -0.2 | -17.9 |
MOUND CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mound City finished the job, as Mound City and South Holt finished 64-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 42-28 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 14.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 21.9 for Mound City and 19.9 for South Holt.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUND CITY
MOFO leans toward Mound City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.0-point margin, with Mound City carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mound City enters at 34.7 points per game compared with 30.7 for South Holt. Mound City also allows 18.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.1 for Mound City and +14.1 for South Holt. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Mound City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.