TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Scotland County | South Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.1 | 28.5 |
| PA / GAME | 22.3 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.5 | +3.2 |
| SOS | -15.2 | -9.0 |
| POWER | +9.2 | +0.1 |
SOUTH CALLAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Callaway finished the job, as Scotland County and South Callaway finished 13-49. MOFO's pick of Scotland County missed; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 3.4-point projection. That produced a 39.4-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Scotland County and 24.5 for South Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SCOTLAND COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Scotland County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.4-point margin, with Scotland County carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Scotland County enters at 30.1 points per game compared with 28.5 for South Callaway. Scotland County also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.2 for Scotland County and -9.0 for South Callaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Scotland County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.