TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kearney | Smithville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 37.2 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 14.0 | 25.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +32.7 | +0.7 |
| SOS | -6.8 | +4.8 |
| POWER | +30.3 | +2.4 |
KEARNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kearney finished the job, as Kearney and Smithville finished 49-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-18 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 16.1-point projection. That produced a 25.9-point margin error, with score errors of 14.8 for Kearney and 11.1 for Smithville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KEARNEY
MOFO leans toward Kearney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.1-point margin, with Kearney carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kearney enters at 37.2 points per game compared with 28.0 for Smithville. Kearney also allows 11.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.8 for Kearney and +4.8 for Smithville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Kearney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smithville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.