TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cole Camp | Sherwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.7 | 19.2 |
| PA / GAME | 33.4 | 20.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -26.2 | -1.3 |
| SOS | +20.5 | -7.8 |
| POWER | -19.0 | -4.0 |
SHERWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sherwood finished the job, as Cole Camp and Sherwood finished 15-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-27 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 8.4-point projection. That produced a 5.4-point margin error, with score errors of 4.1 for Cole Camp and 9.5 for Sherwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SHERWOOD
MOFO leans toward Sherwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.4-point margin, with Sherwood carrying a 75% win probability.
Cole Camp actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Sherwood also allows 12.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.8 for Sherwood and +20.5 for Cole Camp. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cole Camp owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cole Camp has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.