TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Caruthersville | Scott City with Chaffee |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 34.5 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.3 | -22.5 |
| SOS | +1.9 | +7.8 |
| POWER | +5.9 | -19.7 |
CARUTHERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Caruthersville finished the job, as Caruthersville and Scott City with Chaffee finished 34-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 36-23 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 13.6-point projection. That produced a 0.6-point margin error, with score errors of 2.5 for Caruthersville and 1.9 for Scott City with Chaffee.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARUTHERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Caruthersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.6-point margin, with Caruthersville carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Caruthersville enters at 34.5 points per game compared with 23.0 for Scott City with Chaffee. Caruthersville also allows 4.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.9 for Caruthersville and +7.8 for Scott City with Chaffee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Caruthersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Scott City with Chaffee has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.