TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Knox County | Schuyler County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 43.7 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 25.6 | 44.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +25.0 | -15.9 |
| SOS | -14.5 | -1.3 |
| POWER | +19.9 | -16.4 |
KNOX COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Knox County finished the job, as Knox County and Schuyler County finished 64-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 48-23 final.
The actual margin was 52 points versus MOFO's 25.0-point projection. That produced a 27.0-point margin error, with score errors of 16.2 for Knox County and 10.8 for Schuyler County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KNOX COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Knox County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 36.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 25.0-point margin, with Knox County carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Knox County enters at 43.7 points per game compared with 27.6 for Schuyler County. Knox County also allows 18.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.5 for Knox County and -1.3 for Schuyler County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Knox County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Schuyler County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 36.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.