TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fayette | Salisbury |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.5 | 34.5 |
| PA / GAME | 27.5 | 15.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.6 | +24.8 |
| SOS | +5.2 | -19.7 |
| POWER | -12.8 | +17.9 |
SALISBURY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Salisbury finished the job, as Fayette and Salisbury finished 8-51. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 14-34 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 20.2-point projection. That produced a 22.8-point margin error, with score errors of 5.8 for Fayette and 17.1 for Salisbury.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SALISBURY
MOFO leans toward Salisbury because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.2-point margin, with Salisbury carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Salisbury enters at 34.5 points per game compared with 17.5 for Fayette. Salisbury also allows 11.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -19.7 for Salisbury and +5.2 for Fayette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Salisbury owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fayette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.