TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Houston | Salem |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 22.7 |
| PA / GAME | 32.9 | 21.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.0 | +5.4 |
| SOS | +5.5 | -5.5 |
| POWER | -11.1 | +3.5 |
HOUSTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Houston finished the job, as Houston and Salem finished 35-22. MOFO's pick of Salem missed; the model had projected a 23-29 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 6.1-point projection. That produced a 19.1-point margin error, with score errors of 11.9 for Houston and 7.2 for Salem.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SALEM
MOFO leans toward Salem because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.1-point margin, with Salem carrying a 69% win probability.
Houston actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Salem also allows 11.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.5 for Salem and +5.5 for Houston. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Houston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Houston has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.