TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jefferson City | Rock Bridge |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.1 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.0 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.6 | +3.2 |
| SOS | -2.4 | -0.3 |
| POWER | -7.4 | +3.1 |
ROCK BRIDGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rock Bridge finished the job, as Jefferson City and Rock Bridge finished 19-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-31 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 6.2-point projection. That produced a 9.8-point margin error, with score errors of 6.3 for Jefferson City and 3.5 for Rock Bridge.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCK BRIDGE
MOFO leans toward Rock Bridge because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.2-point margin, with Rock Bridge carrying a 70% win probability.
Jefferson City actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Rock Bridge also allows 9.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.3 for Rock Bridge and -2.4 for Jefferson City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Jefferson City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rock Bridge has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.