TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marquette | Ritenour |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 21.5 | 28.5 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 27.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.0 | +2.0 |
| SOS | -1.0 | +6.7 |
| POWER | -2.4 | +4.4 |
MARQUETTE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marquette finished the job, as Marquette and Ritenour finished 42-18. MOFO's pick of Ritenour missed; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 5.5-point projection. That produced a 29.5-point margin error, with score errors of 18.3 for Marquette and 11.2 for Ritenour.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RITENOUR
MOFO leans toward Ritenour because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.5-point margin, with Ritenour carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ritenour enters at 28.5 points per game compared with 21.5 for Marquette. Ritenour also allows 0.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.7 for Ritenour and -1.0 for Marquette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ritenour owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ritenour has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.