TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Appleton City | Rich Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 41.0 | 17.4 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 31.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +7.9 | -18.9 |
| SOS | +3.5 | +4.1 |
| POWER | +9.1 | -17.5 |
APPLETON CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Appleton City finished the job, as Appleton City and Rich Hill finished 34-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 39-22 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 17.5-point projection. That produced a 16.5-point margin error, with score errors of 5.2 for Appleton City and 21.7 for Rich Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD APPLETON CITY
MOFO leans toward Appleton City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.5-point margin, with Appleton City carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Appleton City enters at 41.0 points per game compared with 17.4 for Rich Hill. Rich Hill's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.5 for Appleton City and +4.1 for Rich Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Appleton City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rich Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.