TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Gallatin with Tri-County | Putnam County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 22.6 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 22.5 | 27.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.3 | -11.6 |
| SOS | +1.9 | +16.5 |
| POWER | -0.7 | -5.8 |
PUTNAM COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Putnam County finished the job, as Gallatin with Tri-County and Putnam County finished 14-28. MOFO's pick of Gallatin with Tri-County missed; the model had projected a 25-23 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 2.4-point projection. That produced a 16.4-point margin error, with score errors of 11.2 for Gallatin with Tri-County and 5.2 for Putnam County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GALLATIN WITH TRI-COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Gallatin with Tri-County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.4-point margin, with Gallatin with Tri-County carrying a 58% win probability.
Putnam County actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Gallatin with Tri-County also allows 4.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.9 for Gallatin with Tri-County and +16.5 for Putnam County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Putnam County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Putnam County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.