TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Confluence Prep Academy Charter | Principia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 20.8 | 26.3 |
| PA / GAME | 44.5 | 45.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | -35.0 |
| SOS | +18.4 | +22.1 |
| POWER | -28.6 | -27.3 |
PRINCIPIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Principia finished the job, as Confluence Prep Academy Charter and Principia finished 6-66. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-36 final.
The actual margin was 60 points versus MOFO's 2.5-point projection. That produced a 57.5-point margin error, with score errors of 27.1 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter and 30.4 for Principia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PRINCIPIA
MOFO leans toward Principia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.5-point margin, with Principia carrying a 58% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Principia enters at 26.3 points per game compared with 20.8 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Confluence Prep Academy Charter's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +22.1 for Principia and +18.4 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Principia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Principia has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.