TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fredericktown | Potosi |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 22.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.0 | +18.5 |
| SOS | +1.8 | -0.7 |
| POWER | +0.6 | +18.3 |
FREDERICKTOWN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fredericktown finished the job, as Fredericktown and Potosi finished 20-12. MOFO's pick of Potosi missed; the model had projected a 19-29 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 10.0-point projection. That produced a 18.0-point margin error, with score errors of 0.5 for Fredericktown and 17.4 for Potosi.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD POTOSI
MOFO leans toward Potosi because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.0-point margin, with Potosi carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Potosi enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 20.5 for Fredericktown. Potosi also allows 0.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Potosi and +1.8 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Potosi owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fredericktown has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.