TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Penney | Plattsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.3 | 25.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.0 | 27.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.8 | +3.8 |
| SOS | -2.9 | -5.4 |
| POWER | +3.8 | +2.0 |
PLATTSBURG WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Plattsburg finished the job, as Penney and Plattsburg finished 33-35. MOFO's pick of Penney missed; the model had projected a 25-23 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 1.9-point projection. That produced a 3.9-point margin error, with score errors of 8.1 for Penney and 12.0 for Plattsburg.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PENNEY
MOFO leans toward Penney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.9-point margin, with Penney carrying a 56% win probability.
Plattsburg actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Penney also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.9 for Penney and -5.4 for Plattsburg. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Plattsburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Penney has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.