TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sarcoxie | Pierce City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 31.1 | 27.7 |
| PA / GAME | 16.3 | 27.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +27.2 | +1.4 |
| SOS | -17.8 | +3.3 |
| POWER | +21.0 | +2.6 |
PIERCE CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pierce City finished the job, as Sarcoxie and Pierce City finished 6-46. MOFO's pick of Sarcoxie missed; the model had projected a 31-20 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 10.5-point projection. That produced a 50.5-point margin error, with score errors of 24.9 for Sarcoxie and 25.6 for Pierce City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SARCOXIE
MOFO leans toward Sarcoxie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.5-point margin, with Sarcoxie carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sarcoxie enters at 31.1 points per game compared with 27.7 for Pierce City. Sarcoxie also allows 11.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.8 for Sarcoxie and +3.3 for Pierce City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sarcoxie owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.