TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Vincent | Perryville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.2 | 26.7 |
| PA / GAME | 16.7 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.3 | -0.5 |
| SOS | +3.1 | +4.9 |
| POWER | +19.4 | +1.2 |
ST. VINCENT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Vincent finished the job, as St. Vincent and Perryville finished 42-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-20 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 8.5-point projection. That produced a 33.5-point margin error, with score errors of 13.8 for St. Vincent and 19.7 for Perryville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. VINCENT
MOFO leans toward St. Vincent because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.5-point margin, with St. Vincent carrying a 76% win probability.
Perryville actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. St. Vincent also allows 9.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for St. Vincent and +4.9 for Perryville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Perryville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Perryville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.