TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.3 | 40.2 |
| PA / GAME | 34.8 | 28.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.5 | +18.1 |
| SOS | +4.2 | -4.8 |
| POWER | -13.0 | +16.4 |
PARIS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Paris finished the job, as Lincoln and Paris finished 6-50. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-41 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 15.1-point projection. That produced a 28.9-point margin error, with score errors of 19.4 for Lincoln and 9.5 for Paris.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PARIS
MOFO leans toward Paris because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 29.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.1-point margin, with Paris carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Paris enters at 40.2 points per game compared with 28.3 for Lincoln. Paris also allows 6.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Paris and +4.2 for Lincoln. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Paris owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lincoln has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 29.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.