TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Webb City | Ozark |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 38.8 | 31.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.5 | 30.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.3 | +1.6 |
| SOS | -15.6 | +2.9 |
| POWER | +23.8 | +2.6 |
WEBB CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Webb City finished the job, as Webb City and Ozark finished 21-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-24 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 12.3-point projection. That produced a 9.3-point margin error, with score errors of 15.8 for Webb City and 6.4 for Ozark.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEBB CITY
MOFO leans toward Webb City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.3-point margin, with Webb City carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Webb City enters at 38.8 points per game compared with 31.4 for Ozark. Webb City also allows 9.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.6 for Webb City and +2.9 for Ozark. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Webb City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ozark has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.