TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Russellville | Owensville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 35.0 | 17.8 |
| PA / GAME | 18.6 | 34.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.0 | -22.1 |
| SOS | -18.9 | +3.3 |
| POWER | +22.4 | -21.0 |
RUSSELLVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Russellville finished the job, as Russellville and Owensville finished 36-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 39-14 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 25.3-point projection. That produced a 4.7-point margin error, with score errors of 3.1 for Russellville and 7.8 for Owensville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RUSSELLVILLE
MOFO leans toward Russellville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 43.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 25.3-point margin, with Russellville carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Russellville enters at 35.0 points per game compared with 17.8 for Owensville. Russellville also allows 15.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.9 for Russellville and +3.3 for Owensville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Russellville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Owensville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 43.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.