TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warrensburg | Oak Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.7 | 26.6 |
| PA / GAME | 21.8 | 21.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.4 | +3.5 |
| SOS | -10.6 | -13.7 |
| POWER | +10.7 | -1.3 |
WARRENSBURG WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrensburg finished the job, as Warrensburg and Oak Grove finished 30-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-23 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 3.2-point margin error, with score errors of 2.4 for Warrensburg and 0.8 for Oak Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARRENSBURG
MOFO leans toward Warrensburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Warrensburg carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warrensburg enters at 30.7 points per game compared with 26.6 for Oak Grove. Warrensburg also allows 0.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.6 for Warrensburg and -13.7 for Oak Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Warrensburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warrensburg has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.