TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Concordia | Northwest (Hughesville) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 39.2 |
| PA / GAME | 21.0 | 36.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.4 | -0.5 |
| SOS | -14.9 | -1.0 |
| POWER | +11.2 | -0.8 |
NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Hughesville) finished the job, as Concordia and Northwest (Hughesville) finished 7-20. MOFO's pick of Concordia missed; the model had projected a 36-29 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 6.7-point projection. That produced a 19.7-point margin error, with score errors of 28.7 for Concordia and 9.0 for Northwest (Hughesville).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CONCORDIA
MOFO leans toward Concordia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.7-point margin, with Concordia carrying a 71% win probability.
Northwest (Hughesville) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Concordia also allows 15.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.9 for Concordia and -1.0 for Northwest (Hughesville). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Northwest (Hughesville) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Northwest (Hughesville) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.