TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) | North Shelby |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.8 | 42.1 |
| PA / GAME | 41.9 | 21.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.9 | +30.1 |
| SOS | +7.0 | -7.9 |
| POWER | -16.5 | +27.3 |
NORTH SHELBY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Shelby finished the job, as St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and North Shelby finished 0-82. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-47 final.
The actual margin was 82 points versus MOFO's 24.8-point projection. That produced a 57.2-point margin error, with score errors of 21.8 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and 35.4 for North Shelby.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH SHELBY
MOFO leans toward North Shelby because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 43.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.8-point margin, with North Shelby carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Shelby enters at 42.1 points per game compared with 30.8 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). North Shelby also allows 20.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.9 for North Shelby and +7.0 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01North Shelby owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 43.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.