TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Montgomery County | North Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.6 | 32.7 |
| PA / GAME | 22.2 | 24.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.4 | +10.8 |
| SOS | -12.7 | -1.0 |
| POWER | -0.0 | +10.5 |
NORTH CALLAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Callaway finished the job, as Montgomery County and North Callaway finished 6-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 5.1-point projection. That produced a 42.9-point margin error, with score errors of 17.8 for Montgomery County and 25.2 for North Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward North Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.1-point margin, with North Callaway carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Callaway enters at 32.7 points per game compared with 25.6 for Montgomery County. Montgomery County's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.0 for North Callaway and -12.7 for Montgomery County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01North Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.