TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Republic | Nixa |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 36.9 | 34.2 |
| PA / GAME | 17.4 | 22.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +30.7 | +17.4 |
| SOS | -18.1 | +0.6 |
| POWER | +24.4 | +17.6 |
NIXA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nixa finished the job, as Republic and Nixa finished 6-49. MOFO's pick of Republic missed; the model had projected a 30-25 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 47.8-point margin error, with score errors of 24.2 for Republic and 23.6 for Nixa.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD REPUBLIC
MOFO leans toward Republic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Republic carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Republic enters at 36.9 points per game compared with 34.2 for Nixa. Republic also allows 5.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.1 for Republic and +0.6 for Nixa. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Republic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Nixa has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.