TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Greenfield | New Heights Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 37.3 | 30.4 |
| PA / GAME | 44.7 | 37.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.3 | -5.9 |
| SOS | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| POWER | +1.9 | -6.2 |
GREENFIELD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Greenfield finished the job, as Greenfield and New Heights Christian finished 88-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 39-37 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 40.2-point margin error, with score errors of 49.5 for Greenfield and 9.3 for New Heights Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GREENFIELD
MOFO leans toward Greenfield because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with Greenfield carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Greenfield enters at 37.3 points per game compared with 30.4 for New Heights Christian. New Heights Christian's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.1 for Greenfield and -0.8 for New Heights Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Greenfield owns the stronger scoring profile.
02New Heights Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.